Flames of War – Q4 : ETC is coming (Season 2023-2024)

Hello there, boys and girls,
 
Fred here, updating you on my 2023-2024 FoW Season. With 3^rd quarter gone, last quarter is here, and with it, the most prestigious (and difficult) event of the season: ETC! As a foreword, I won’t detail all the current brainstorms and tactics from the Team (that’s a surprise we are keeping for August!), but will try to provide an overview of the event, the lists and current meta, and what to expect.

Be a wargamer … and a father (new episode)

So, we left the series in June with the whole family moving back to Paris. That was my tenth moving (on average: one every 3 and a half years – too much!), same for my loved one. I have to concede doing so with 2 younglings was a first and not easy, but we got great help from our movers (if you are in France and look for haulers, I got good ones!) and family.
Now we have to settle in for everything, get the furniture right, and unpack the tons of clothes, books, and obviously cooking tools (we are French, remember?). Plus settle things with both our jobs (which would be much easier now we don’t have to travel 800kms every week). And of course, have the kids happy with their new school, kinder garden, and new friends.

Fortunately no toy soldiers were lost nor broken in the process, and I might get ready for August big show, ETC. Speaking of which, we received the lists from the 20 teams, so good reading and planning in perspective in July while herding the kids and complete work before summer break.

I’m not so sure I would have much liberty to actually throw a pair of training games, as training is always good and they are several combos picked by players worth trying on tabletops. I’m not so sure at all I will end up completing my “1 game every 2 weeks” secret objective, which I’m closer to achieve than I would have thought at the beginning of the season (thank you GTs!). 2023-2024 would still be one of the least games played seasons for me but hey, Real Life, right?

European Team Championship

So many things have been already written for this event, I won’t paraphrase and cut to the essential of this edition. The BTA’s crew (with guest Paolo) also made an introduction video : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W2hPwWf82k

The team tournament will be held in Poland, Cracow, from August 02^nd to August 04^th. 3 days, 2 games per day, 6 rounds overall. 20 teams will attend, 6 players per team, from New Zealand to USA, and of course many countries from Europe. Albeit it’s originally a “nations” event, the tournament has been held for so long (11^th edition this year + 1 SSF in 2021), many friendships had been built, and a lot of teams are packing foreigners in their ranks. Which is great, a true symbol of how wargaming can be inclusive.

Teams are paired up together based on how they perform during the event (with first round being random), individuals are matched-up using a specific procedure, are doing their game 1vs1, and are scoring points according to whether they win or not. The individuals scores of each team-member are added up to determine a final standing which will get the winner … nothing but respect! There is also a fierce competition for best painted armies and best sports, equally important prizes in the hobby.

We left 2023 with Mid War, with Poland as World Champions, seconded by USA, and Italy completing the podium. This edition will be 105 points Late War, and quite a lot has changed since 2022 the last LW competition (+5 points, a massive LFTF changing how to Build Forces, a nerf to certain “fan-favorites” combos, arrival/deployment of Bulge books, new Berlin books, new Missions…). For sure, the afore mentioned Teams are still top tier countries, but many communities have trained to challenge their supremacy. Let’s have a look at what everyone cooked…

Global meta – the reign of the 3 majors

Before we get into the lists, just a quick reminder of the constraints the ETC has, which are quite compulsory to avoid everybody brings what it wants regardless of the other team members. This is both to promote diversity, add balance, and regulate how to select Forces within Teams.

• First, Teams have to select at least 4 Nations (meaning you can’t have 2 UK / 2 GER / 2 US, but have to sacrifice at least 1).
• No Formation nor Card can be duplicated within a Team (so no double twin Formations, need to share the Formations/Cards with your crew…).
• Each Team will have to set up Battle Plan, before the Round begins; 2 BP Attack, 2 BP Manoeuvre, 2 BP Defend. Those are secret and will be revealed at the end of the pairing process.
• The pairing is ETC specific and basically allow to determine what would be the 1vs1 games between the 2 teams.
• Apart from that, ETC has other limitations (such as only 5 Scouts Units, no Berlin with FIN/ROM Allies…), and, most importantly, Victory = 1 Big Point, Draw or Loss = 0 Big Point, and the scoring board is determined by the Big Points.
• In short: yes, battles are individuals, but the whole event is team-based. Think as a team or loss as individuals (like the good Al Paccino would say…).

Without further addou, here are the ETC 2024 lists :
https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1BWQqYToCcNATtR-3ErFYme5NtJUk4muf
I will let our good friend Soren do the detailed maths, and Mark, Richard and Paolo already provided their opinion. Here is mine, converging and diverging.

What is striking so far is the clear dominance of 3 major Nations:
– 39 GER (32,5%)
– 29 US (~24%)
– 25 UK (~21%)
Representing more than 77% of the attending Lists, almost all Teams bring the 3 of them, many selected 2 of either GER and/or US and/or UK.
After those, the most represented nation is USSR (16 only – 13%), the rest being HUN/ROM/FIN.

There are lot of explanations to this dominance of the 3 majors, some we have already covered in details https://breakthroughassault.co.uk/flames-of-war-competition-in-late-war-part-4/
It is fair to state those 3 Nations have the most options and most probably the best Briefings available right now for LW. Whether the players are seeking for balanced Builds that will not let them down, or purely scary ones, GER, US and UK can provide.

The other dominance we see in the meta are 3 major concept trends trusting the slots:
– Armored Fist: considering a Medium tank formation backed up by another Medium tank formation (or Heavy / Light for middle ground) or Infantry (usually Mechanized – especially if they can get medium armor as transports such as the Kangaroos). Used to dominate the field, having mobility and firepower to seize and hold position, or be able to compensate as firefighters. Usually well backed up by Artillery and/or Flamerthrowers. ~25% of the Lists are following this pattern
– Mad Tracks: hordes of lightly armored fighting vehicles (half-tracks, recce…), squeezing Big Tanks or Infantry for playmakers. Used to either suppress enemy Infantry and Light AFV from the field or hold key positions behind steel and light armament. ~20% of the Lists are following this pattern
– Wall of Bodies: legion of Infantry Units, with or without ATG, able to crawl the board while assaulting or flood it while defending. Sometimes combined with handful Tanks to reinforce the line when it breaks or push in the breakthrough. Though nuts to crack, so many bodies to go through to reach the Objectives or to Repel to keep Objectives safe. ~20% of the Lists are following this pattern
Representing around 2/3 of the attending Lists, those are the “usual suspects” of this ETC 2024, something every team need to be ready to face and find solution against.

Those trends are quite easy to get, these concepts are excellent at what they do, pushing the “I want to be good everywhere” into “I want to be the best somewhere”. Put in the right situation, they are really hard to stop. Somehow, there is a “food chain” loop pattern here, with something like Armored Fist beating Mad Tracks beating Wall of Bodies beating Armored Fist. At least in principle. This is however not rock/paper/scissor the way FoW is built and the way LW is designed (and per extension: those concepts); another reason why the concepts are popular is they have room to breathe and adapt even if they are not in the optimal situation.

Complementary, it is fair to state Concepts of 2024 became heavier than what they used to be. Back in 2022, it was quite rare to have a number of tank or infantry teams superior to 40 and a volume of fire superior to 200 shots. It’s quite common now, with some Concepts pushing it to 70 AFV / 300 shots (such as Team NZ – Nigel’s Brigade/Schnell). Same, using 2 times the “almost the same but not exactly” Formation was not common, while it is now (many teams use things such as Double Sherman or Double Stummels). Under a pattern of “more than you can swallow”, racking up the number of infantry Units to 5+ (with USSR and GER having the palm) is not unusual anymore. We will analyze all that in details after the event in the debrief.

Counter meta – thinking outside the box

Apart from those trends, we see the emergence of a meta aimed at countering the meta. Of course, the food-chain loop relationship described above is a direct consequence of players’ choice (and is already the meta countering its own), but some players push it even further.

There are many granularities, we can pinpoint several:
High AT or High AP: those are mainly lists that are over-ruling one of the Rule of 4 by pushing it far beyond. The target is to be heavier than heavy to address violently several concepts en vogue. As examples, Team Poland Kurtys’ 7 artilleries build or Team England Laurence’s 6 AT-assets build. Those types of Builds trade their capacity to be versatile to be more dedicated in breaking the target(s) they aim at countering by overloading one of their forte.
Night Attack: a long-forgotten concept is back, mainly because the Builds that allow it (UK Infantry, USSR, GER Clausewitz…) are not specifically designed to maximize the use of it. In short: if they can launch it, fine, otherwise, fine as well. This concept is unstoppable should you have all the stars aligned to properly launch it, but will struggle if you based your strategy around it and you don’t have all the keys right. Now, with Builds more balanced and designed to have the opportunity for it, it’s not a drama if you don’t have all the conditions to launch Night Attack. It’s a nice tool to have in the Teams’ pocket.
Breaking Bad(s): several Teams address the 3 major trends more cunningly, with lists designed at specifically countering them, leaving aside a bit the rest of the meta. Considering the “usual suspects” represent 2/3 of the lists attending, it’s mathematically not a bad choice at all. We saw the emergence (or resurgence) of things like GER StuH/Wespe and US Priest/UK Sexton, being primarily efficient at breaking Mad Tracks and/or Wall of Bodies (StuH-Sexton having another layer of play against regular Tanks). To a lesser extent, Chaffee are back as an option, their armor giving them upper hedge against AT7- (quite numerous in Mad Tracks builds), while having the same guns as Sherman but more mobility (and Protected Ammo). Interestingly enough, Salvo launchers are not much favored, despite their capacities to damage Wall of Bodies (they are however more complex to play and more specific compared to versatile heavy artillery). Armored Fist is not that much considered as a problem needing solutions, very few Teams brought high speed/high AT Tank Destroyers to tackle them, relying more on “classic” Tanks to win the duel and Infantry with AT to win the Assaults. It is fair to state those lists are more pair-up dependent than others, something manageable given how the procedure of the ETC is done.

Contradictory to those, last but not least, whether by choice or by default (remembering it’s a Team event, with constraints), we still have Builds quite in line with the “jack-of-all-trades” pattern of LW, namely balanced combination of Infantry + Tanks (UK being the champions of it, notably with the numerous Desert Rats Rifles backed up by Recce, Achille, and either Crocodile or Allied US Sherman 76mm ).

What to expect ?

Poland will win the ETC 2024.
Remember, you read it here first, on Breakthrough Assault – BTA, the best wargaming blog dedicated to Flames of War.

All jokes aside, competition will be fierce this year.
We have many competent players eager to score, a group of Teams whose Objective is podium (either because they’ve been on it before – USA, Italia, England, or simply because they have tried to achieve it for years – Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Denmark, Switzerland), and a LW meta that is quite hardcore at the moment.
Many players and teams will play well and indeed perform, but as per every competition, there is only one crown. My bet is on Poland, given they are the reigning champions, they never missed an ETC podium spot, are playing home, and have a very solid team as always (players + meta). But it’s ETC, all Teams start with the same chances, so its up to the players to actually play the game and try their best!

Apart from the final rankings and predictions, what players will find in Cracow is what they will indeed bring. Each year, the ETC combines players that are definitely there for the competition, with players more interested in the scoring and others who are coming for the social interaction. Dependingd on the spirit you come with, the time you spent in preparing for the competition, and how you actually play during the event, as long as the games are played fair, everybody will enjoy it.

From my humble perspective, as a guest member of Team Switzerland, I’m eager to put on a good show and not let the boys down. They’ve done a tremendous job for this edition, from all aspects of the hobby, they do deserve more than credits. My season had been quite awkward so far, not many games, but happy with the results and want to contribute to Team success.
I will have much time to explain how I designed my Build, why I choose this list, how it fits in the global and team meta, how I play it, and how it actually performed during the ETC when we debrief it!

Ready for the show ?

ETC is coming fast, its less than 1 month before the competition rages in Cracow. For now on, most of us are working on the other Teams’ lists and metagame, preparing strategies and tactics, and putting the last war paints to our toy soldiers.
The 1st round had been announced, and we all look forward the first rollof the dice on August 02^nd.

That’s all for now, we will have much to debrief when this is over – so stay tunned!

Knowledge is power: share it widely!

Fred